“Nothing Lasts Forever…” - Guns N’ Roses Finally Release Chinese Democracy

12:01am on September 17, 1991 might have marked the moment when popular music reached its commercial zenith. This was when, in an unprecedented display of rock superstardom, Guns N’ Roses released the albums Use Your Illusion I and II simultaneously. Masses of teens camped outside the doors of Tower Records and flooded into shopping malls at midnight to get their hands on a copy of the sacred music (this was before the time of online leaks). It was, for my generation, probably the cultural equivalent to The Beatles’ celebrated release of Sgt. Peppers.

I’m not joking.

Illusion I and II debuted at 2 and 1 respectively on the Billboard charts and stayed there for 108 weeks, going on to sell more than 14 million copies in the United States alone. The single "November Rain" and its maddeningly grandiose video are remembered for the iconic image of Slash, in his top hat, soloing on the hood of Axl Rose’s piano. It’s something that kids half my age instantly recognize upon brief mention, which links to the fact that the video has been viewed an estimated 26 million times on YouTube. Use Your Illusion was an example of the biggest band of its time coming out with its biggest album when interest in popular music was at its height.

Usually, a band will capitalize on a hit album by promptly releasing a follow-up. In the case of Gun N’ Roses, the November 23 release of Chinese Democracy comes 17 years, 67 days, and three Bush Administrations after the Illusion albums came out. We needn’t wade too deep into the abyss between Guns' releases, a period during which founding members Slash, Izzy Stradlin, and Duff McKagan all quit the band. Axl's cornrows and descent into crazed Brian Wilson-esque reclusion, the aborted tours, Buckethead, $13 million spent in 14 different studios, four producers fired, FBI visits to bloggers’ homes, and revolving door lineup have all been covered by better writers in more reputable magazines.

The album’s title has become a punch line in itself. In March, Dr. Pepper announced that they will give every person in America a free can of their soda-based beverage if the band releases Chinese Democracy before the end of 2008. Even Chez 106 disc jockey Robin Harper claimed on-air he would walk down Bank St. naked when it comes out.

Yet interest or at least curiosity in Chinese Democracy has built continually with each passing year it fails to come out to the point where people are unsure as to whether Axl Rose is the world’s biggest fuck-up or a marketing genius. Some of my friends claimed he was too terrified of the potential criticism to release it. These people note that Axl’s 17-year in the making masterpiece would be an easy target for critics, and, if it were to bomb, it would kill him or at least cause him to never come out of his house again. The pressure and expectations are summed up by Chuck Klosterman in his 2006 April Fool’s fake review: "There is really only one way for Chinese Democracy to avoid utter and absolute failure: It needs to be the greatest rock album ever made."

In an effort to keep Axl on the ledge, his label Geffen Records has negotiated a deal to make Chinese Democracy’s U.S. release a Best Buy ‘exclusive,’ meaning the retailer will be the only place in that country where the album can be bought.

At first, this seems nonsensical. Wouldn’t a CD naturally sell more copies if it were available in more places?

Apparently not. In October, AC/DC’s Wal-Mart exclusive album Black Ice had the second biggest sales week of the year, moving 900,000 copies (compare that to 130,000 copies their last album, Stiff Upper Lip sold in its debut week). The Eagles Wal-Mart exclusive, Long Road Out of Eden, was the third biggest selling album of 2007 - a double CD that the retailer sold for $11.88.

These facts have not gone ignored by Axl’s management team, who I imagine told him something along these lines: "Sorry, but this time your fans probably won’t be lined up around the block at Tower Records to buy your new album. For one thing, the chain no longer exists. Actual record stores can’t compete with the musical selection on the internet, so unless you want to be Radiohead, place your album exclusively where people buy physical products, and allow the Wal-Mart/Best Buy in-house promotion machine to capture an unsuspecting record buying public."

In this scenario, the guy who goes into one of these places to purchase an ink cartridge sees a massive ad display and remembers, "I do like AC/DC." Or, "Yeah, I wouldn’t mind hearing some new songs from the Eagles." And, of course, the price is right.

But will this work for Gn’R? The success of the ‘exclusive’ appears to be based on deliverables (you don’t see fringe bands like Arcade Fire and Kings of Leon signing Wal-Mart exclusive deals). Groups like AC/DC and The Eagles are recognizable brands: people know exactly what they’re getting, and, if you’ve listened to anything off Black Ice or Long Road, you’ll notice that both bands have not strayed from the formula.

Guns N' Roses are also a brand people like,perhaps even more so than the other acts, but the formula has gone through an extended period of tinkering with many components replaced. A person who loved Appetite for Destruction but hasn’t followed the Chinese Democracy saga will listen to it and inevitably ask: "Where’s Slash? This doesn’t sound like Guns N’ Roses." In the end, Axl’s relentless effort to sound current may pose the greatest threat to the commercial prospects of this venture.

But more is at stake with Chinese Democracy than mere commercial success: there’s Axl’s reputation as a major artist. The Wal-Mart/Best Buy business models take strictly a product-oriented approach to selling music, as opposed to making an emotional impact on society. Long Road Out Of Eden may have been the third biggest selling album of 2007, but I defy you to name a single song off that album. It had about the same cultural impact as ink cartridges did that year (which shares a similarly sized shelf space as music at Wal-Mart). AC/DC may have nearly outsold Lil Wayne this year, but there’s nothing off it that rivals the recognition of "Lollipop" or "You Shook Me All Night Long" for that matter.

So even if Best Buy does deliver Axl Rose a multi-platinum record, it doesn’t mean they can deliver the man what he wants: a record that matters.

And I think that’s unfortunate because Axl Rose used to matter. He’s part of a dwindling breed of bona-fide rock icons that helped define what a generation wore, how they danced, and the music they made out to. No matter how much of a snob you may claim to be, you can’t say you don’t have a fond memory that’s forever intertwined with a Guns N’ Roses tune.

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My predictions for Chinese Democracy:

1^{st week US sales: 460,000 copies}

Debut Billboard Chart Position: 3

US sales after 1 year: 1.7 million copies

Worldwide: 5 million

Music: Good, but maybe a little over thought . . .

Comments (1)

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Geoff

March 14, 2009

Votes: +0

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Really bad...

The only major problem I have with this album is that it totally sucks. I'm amazed at the quality of some of the guitar sounds, which sound like they come from a cheap digital FX unit- I really can't hear the 13mil budget there! It all just smacks of someone with very little creative vision (and way too much money) trying to desperately hold on to the brand which made him rich.

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