The Party's Over: Lessons Learned from Canada's Fallen Politicians |
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| Written by Kendall R. Giberson |
| Sunday, 04 November 2007 19:00 |
 Fall is traditionally the time of year in which major elections are held in North America. Consequently, it has been a time when great falls from power have occurred. It is interesting to look back at the most significant falls from power in recent Canadian history. The past few years have seen some dramatic falls from grace on the part of political parties and/or individual politicians. In some cases, the electorate falls out of love with individual leaders, and the parties associated with them get dragged down. In other cases, people become tired of the governing party and individuals within the party are run through the wringer.
In focusing on falls from power, we can learn from the experiences. Those who participate in political parties can learn from missteps that led to crushing electoral defeats. Others who are students of areas such as public opinion and electoral studies can observe trends or develop predictive models based on similar events. In any event, here are three valuable lessons to be learned from falls from power over recent decades. Lesson #1: Be careful of what you wish for, you just might get elected. Sometimes, an effective opposition party does not make a good government. After winning 74 of 130 seats in Ontario’s 1990 provincial election, the New Democratic Party under Premier Bob Rae took power just as an economic recession hit the province. Many of the new MPPs were inexperienced and unprepared for the demands of government, especially in cabinet posts. From a policy standpoint, Bob Rae alienated long-time NDP supporters by reneging on several promises and ran into resistance from the civil service and the business sector in trying to implement market reforms. In the next election, in 1995, the NDP dropped to 17 seats, and have been relegated to third party status ever since. The lesson learned here is that it’s one thing to raise concerns while in opposition, but it is completely different once you have the responsibility to do something about it. Lesson #2: Know when to fold ’em Some leaders should just quit while they’re ahead in the polls. In six provincial elections between 1949 and 1966, Joey Smallwood’s Newfoundland Liberals won 182 out of a possible 212 seats. Despite several blunders and misspent money, Smallwood did not show any signs of stepping aside in favour of younger blood. Several disaffected young Liberals defected to the progressive Conservatives in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and it took two elections in 1971 and 1972 for the PCs to win a majority and force Smallwood out of power. Similarly, Premier Richard Hatfield of New Brunswick enjoyed four consecutive electoral victories from 1970 to 1983; but allegations of marijuana use during a 1984 Royal visit and dissent among the PC ranks concerning Hatfield’s choices of cabinet ministers and his pursuit of bilingualism projects haunted his image. Public knowledge of infighting within the PC camp and the popularity of the new Liberal leader Frank McKenna proved a deadly combination. The PCs were obliterated in 1987, losing all 58 of the province’s seats in an historic Liberal sweep. The difference between Hatfield and Smallwood is that Hatfield resigned gracefully, while Smallwood made attempts to regain power and damaged his party in the process. Lesson # 3: A fresh face cannot save an unpopular government. British Columbia Premier Glen Clark was rocked by a budget scandal surrounding the 1996 provincial election and was also charged with accepting renovations to his home in return for approving a casino application. Clark resigned in 1999, and the NDP chose Ujjal Dosanjh as its new leader and premier of BC. In the 2001 election, the NDP won only 2 seats to the Liberals’ 77. Likewise, in Ontario, the PCs attempted to put the hard-right image of the Mike Harris years behind them when they chose Ernie Eves and, later, John Tory, to be their leaders. This did not work, as we saw in the 2003 and 2007 provincial elections. What all of these falls from power have in common is that it took a long time for any of the political parties involved to recover. In the Ontario NDP’s case, one could argue that it will be a long time before it regains power ever again. In some cases, leaders did not see the writing on the wall as their ego or state of denial blinded them. From these lessons, one can gather that the recipe for staying in power in Canada is to speak ambiguously, do not take a firm stand on any issue, and most importantly, do nothing. Step down only when those in your party grow tired of you.
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